A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
